Fluminense vs Gremio prediction 20.08.2024 | Copa Libertadores

• Competition: Copa Libertadores, 1/8 Finals, 2nd Leg
• Date: Tuesday, 20th August, 2024
• Kickoff: 23:00 UK
• Venue: Maracan? (Rio de Janeiro)

After a 2:1 for Gremio in the first leg, two Brazilian sides, Fluminense and Gremio, will face off in the second leg of Copa Libertadores 1/8 Finals at Maracan? in Rio de Janeiro.

Fluminense are trying to secure back-to-back titles in Copa Libertadores, as they managed to win their first ever last year in 122-year-old history. Even though they are doing fine in the Copa Libertadores this year, the popular Fluzao are not doing great in Serie A, as they found themselves in the relegation zone. They are 18th with just 21 points from 22 rounds - one point away from the safe zone. Constant injuries are definitely a part of the problem this season, but many football pundits suggest that this squad is too old and that they need some changes. Currently, at an average of 28.8 years, Fluminense are the oldest team in the Brazilian Serie A.

Gremio had a turbulent last few years. They suffered relegation in 2021 but managed to return the following season. They were fantastic in their returning season last year, finishing second and barely missing the title! In the end, they finished just two points below the eventual champs, Palmeiras. This season in Serie A got off to a bad start, as they spent most of it in the danger zone. However, with four wins in the last five league games, they managed to move to 14th place. In the Copa Libertadores 1/8 Finals, they did a great job in the first leg despite playing on a neutral pitch. Now, they are the favorites to advance, with the bookies offering odds around 1.4 for them to secure Quarter Finals.

Fluminense vs Gremio pick: Under 2.5 goals

Fluminense are in terrible form. They have not won in the last four games in all competitions while scoring just three goals - 0.75 per game. However, that is not strange because they have been terrible offensively throughout the season and average only 0.73 per game in Serie A. To be fair, most of their poor results lately came away from home. At Maracana, they won two and drew three in the last five while keeping a clean sheet in three of those five matches. More importantly for our bet, we can see a constant low-scoring games trend at Maracana, with six of their last seven games finishing under 2.5 goals.

Meanwhile, even though Gremio offered some better offensive performances in recent games, they weren't much better than Fluminense through the season, with an average of only 0.95 goals per game, which is the fourth worst in Serie A. Mainly due to a bad offensive display, these teams primarily player low-scoring games this season.

In the first leg, Gremio won 2:1. Nonetheless, Gremio were super lucky because they scored their first goal from the penalty spot, and the second one was a mistake by goalkeeper Fabio. So, we could easily see a game with just one goal.

Considering all the above, but especially both teams' poor offensive performances and low-scoring trend at Maracana, we believe that an under 2.5 goals is the safest option for this Copa Libertadores tie.